Modlin is a budget airline airport 40 km from Warsaw, which makes the taxi-vs-transfer decision more consequential here than at airports closer to their cities.
Price
Both options land in the same range: PLN 150-250 to central Warsaw. The difference is that a taxi fare depends on traffic (metered), while a transfer price is fixed at booking. During Warsaw rush hours, the metered taxi fare can creep toward the high end. With a transfer, you pay the same regardless of how long the drive takes.
Availability at Modlin
Modlin is not a major hub. It handles a limited number of flights per day, mostly Ryanair. Taxi availability at the terminal is inconsistent. When a flight lands, there may be several taxis. Between flights, the airport is quiet and taxis may not be waiting. A pre-booked transfer guarantees a driver is there for your specific flight.
The overcharging risk
At smaller airports, unlicensed or opportunistic drivers sometimes charge inflated rates, especially to tourists unfamiliar with local prices. This is not universal at Modlin, but it happens. A pre-booked transfer with a confirmed price removes this risk entirely. If you take a taxi, insist on the meter and know that PLN 250 is roughly the maximum a fair metered ride should cost.
Vehicle quality
Taxis at Modlin are a mixed bag. Licensed taxis are generally fine, but you may encounter vehicles with limited boot space or no air conditioning. A transfer service typically maintains a newer fleet and you can request a specific vehicle type.
The journey
The 40 km drive follows the S7 road toward Warsaw. It is a well-maintained route but passes through some areas with traffic lights and urban congestion as you approach the city. At peak times, this section slows significantly. A good driver knows alternative routes. Transfer drivers who do the Modlin-Warsaw run regularly tend to navigate this better than a random taxi driver.
Payment
Polish taxis accept card payments, but some drivers at smaller airports prefer cash. Pre-booked transfers are usually paid online or by card. If you are arriving without Polish zloty, a transfer is more convenient.
The verdict
For Modlin specifically, a pre-booked transfer has a clearer advantage than at most airports. The remote location, inconsistent taxi supply, and 40 km distance all favor having a confirmed driver waiting. The price is essentially the same. The only scenario where a taxi makes more sense is if you are comfortable with the uncertainty, arrive during a busy period when taxis are plentiful, and want to avoid planning ahead.